Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-06-29 1.885860 1.989548 2.098001 2.220271 2.354734 2.498617 2.664911
2025-07-06 1.702152 1.841979 1.994626 2.174905 2.383681 2.619964 2.910698
2025-07-13 1.620584 1.786132 1.972606 2.200701 2.475728 2.801473 3.224130
2025-07-20 1.564435 1.749810 1.963997 2.233759 2.570463 2.985604 3.551138
2025-07-27 1.520368 1.721942 1.959992 2.267591 2.663625 3.170377 3.893644
2025-08-03 1.461119 1.670815 1.922682 2.254769 2.693123 3.271428 4.130163
2025-08-10 1.408919 1.624614 1.887545 2.240475 2.716930 3.363430 4.360108
2025-08-17 1.359219 1.578529 1.849289 2.218436 2.726795 3.434303 4.563560
2025-08-24 1.314069 1.535780 1.812627 2.195410 2.732209 3.497123 4.759039
2025-08-31 1.283214 1.509609 1.795671 2.197101 2.771091 3.610256 5.046689
2025-09-07 1.259130 1.490877 1.787148 2.209105 2.824432 3.748159 5.392389
2025-09-14 1.220786 1.451974 1.749952 2.178785 2.812963 3.783402 5.561594
2025-09-21 1.182713 1.412671 1.711365 2.145533 2.796341 3.811066 5.725016
2025-09-28 1.143387 1.370486 1.667364 2.102488 2.762188 3.807308 5.828710
2025-10-05 1.130504 1.363000 1.670220 2.126872 2.832813 3.982599 6.308121
2025-10-12 1.120816 1.359279 1.677817 2.158116 2.915675 4.186064 6.883635
2025-10-19 1.111910 1.356158 1.685880 2.190073 3.001386 4.402858 7.535163
2025-10-26 1.089467 1.333689 1.665646 2.177963 3.013376 4.485696 7.895934
2025-11-02 1.067803 1.311643 1.645203 2.164461 3.021888 4.562290 8.257469
2025-11-09 1.045013 1.287397 1.620781 2.143636 3.016460 4.611187 8.559143
2025-11-16 1.023036 1.263718 1.596438 2.121871 3.007992 4.653085 8.851882
2025-11-23 1.008948 1.250733 1.587211 2.123469 3.040270 4.779548 9.410926
2025-11-30 0.998301 1.242281 1.584276 2.134817 3.090314 4.947532 10.141732